It's going to take a lot more than 5000 marines to open up those straits. Firstly there is the problem with insurance. The mere threat of an attack is enough to stop insurance companies from insuring those ships through the straits. Iran has only got to hit a single ship (don't even have to sink it) and the whole thing will grind to a halt and the geography means that Iran has so many ways to attack. They can launch drones from pretty much anywhere in the country. There's artillery fire, rockets, min submarines, mines and even divers that can swim right up to a ship and attach a mine.ispdn wrote: ↑March 13th, 2026, 8:01 pm5,000 marines are on the way to guard the Straits, so ships might start going through with no threat.tacnet wrote: ↑March 12th, 2026, 2:38 pmTrump will undoubtedly claim victory at some point. It's hard to see how Iran can actually win this war but then again, they don't have to. All they have to do is NOT LOOSE ! After all, this is a war of choice for Trump so he can walk away at any time but for the Iranian regime, its a battle for their very survival so they have no choice but to fight on.
America has a very powerful military they can use but Iran has a very powerful economic tool they can use, the straights of Hormuz. The more pressure they can put on oil prices, the harder it will be for Trump to claim victory.
And I don't think Trump's idea of escorting ships through the straights will be as straight forward as he thinks. He would need to setup a gun line all along the Iranian coast with full 24x7 air cover and even then, you could only really escort 4 or 5 ships at a time. It would only take one of those ships to get hit by a drone or even one of Iran's mini submarines and there would be an ecological disaster. That would result in the gulf states suing the USA for up to $350 billion (that's the figure JP Morgan estimated it might cost)
The second issue is that now you have American forces within range of Iranian attacks, in other words boots on the ground. America is fighting a war of choice, Iran is fighting a war for its very survival and they will extract as heavy a toll as possible. Remember that in the 1980's, Iraq (backed by the USA and Russia) fought an 8 year war with Iran to try and overthrow the regime. They failed !!
So far Trumps response is to threaten Kharg island, a small island through which Iran exports 90% of its oil. The only problem with that is if you remove Iran's oil from the global market, then you are going to drive up oil prices even further which is EXACTLY what Iran is trying to achieve.
I honestly don't think Trump and Hegseth have thought this through
